I am so confused. A lot of news today; none of which makes much sense. Let’s begin with the Front National because that’s the big story of the day. What in the world is going on with these people? Has MLP left the FN or not? Does Marine’s announcement that she will be leaving the party mean that she won or lost the struggle for power inside the party?
Or could it mean that her father, JMLP, is the winner? This morning, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, granddaughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, niece of Marine (and her main rival), will leave politics. Why?
I do not understand what this means in the context of the ongoing struggle for power inside the Front National. Marion is allied with her grandfather. Does her leaving mean that he lost the fight for the power and his granddaughter has been cast out of the party? Which would imply that Marine won. But then why would both Marine and Marion leave? And if they both leave, who stays? Who is the winner? The vieil homme? But surely this would be a pyrrhic victory.
So, in other news, the Prime Minister of the Socialist Party, Manuel Valls, will be a candidate in the National Assembly under the banner of Macron. But he claims to have stayed a good socialist and wishes to remain in the PS just in case things go badly for him in his new situation? Clearly, he’s a rat and needs to leave the PS right now and take his chances. Now, he’s proposing to serve the other rat who jumped ship from the PS.
But what are the implications for Valls if Macron turns even more to the right and significantly past the centrists who are his base? Will Valls follow him from the center to the right? This seems to be irrevocable and a little bit dangerous choice. There is no possible return for Valls. He will have made his bed and will need to sleep in it.
The big question for today: who will be Macron’s prime minister? Right, centrist, or left? Certainly, not the left! There is a good overview of the possibilities today in Le Parisian today.
If Macron can obtain a majority or at least something close enough for him to form a government with the Modems and some renegades from the LR and the PS (such as Valls), who will he chose as prime minister? Fillion is damaged goods. I think Macron will chose Juppé or Bayrou, with an outside chance of Jean-Louis Borloo, an opportunist the same as Macron. Probably Bayrou.